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So for Google to remain underpriced when your uncle sees it, you have to assume everyone at every Wall Street hedge fund has just failed to notice this tremendous money-making opportunity – the same sort of implausible failure as a $20 staying on the floor of Grand Central for a week.
In the same way, suppose there’s a city full of rich people who all love Thai food and are willing to pay top dollar for it.
But go too far with this kind of logic, and you start accidentally proving that nothing can be bad anywhere.
Suppose you thought that modern science was broken, with scientists and grantmakers doing a bad job of focusing their discoveries on truly interesting and important things.
So without her finding any particular flaw in her theory, she can be pretty sure that it’s wrong – or else already discovered.
This isn’t to say nobody can ever win a Nobel Prize.
If you see a bill lying on the sidewalk, today is your lucky day.
If you see a bill lying on the sidewalk in Grand Central Station, and you remember having seen the same bill a week ago, something is wrong. But there’s no way that such a low-hanging piece of money-making fruit would go unpicked for that long.
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Big Wall Street banks have people who are at least as smart as your uncle, and who will notice before he does whether stocks are underpriced.